Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 20.236496 22.048461 24.056524 26.468893 29.318559 32.617337 36.785642
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.431080 19.787446 22.596491 26.269856 31.073992 37.347344 46.553285
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 15.460289 18.066428 21.342286 25.915049 32.418940 41.881960 58.021051
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 14.049858 16.784130 20.365429 25.636796 33.695444 46.658665 72.504141
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 12.983008 15.783709 19.576089 25.411955 34.919145 51.734196 91.308698
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.155811 14.995432 18.950204 25.276651 36.197705 57.383657 117.277909
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 11.371858 14.180974 18.176640 24.762049 36.668188 61.648835 145.955094
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 11.078054 14.021493 18.332792 25.747626 40.108053 74.261657 236.330900
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 10.543621 13.463368 17.815917 25.500676 41.054996 81.395929 339.062775
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 10.139015 13.062681 17.499966 25.550854 42.636324 91.575823 579.765734
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.811859 12.751579 17.292652 25.760352 44.635872 105.057178 1410.095091
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.488716 12.422708 17.023681 25.809541 46.278778 119.269192 9737.607449
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.132779 12.027571 16.622648 25.570279 47.209398 132.331514 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.849896 11.730353 16.364133 25.585530 48.861487 152.270622 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.548948 11.387515 16.001136 25.339814 49.735827 170.248875 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.275791 11.074490 15.667363 25.115084 50.633380 191.542490 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.027984 10.789604 15.363222 24.917834 51.584021 217.404115 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.809358 10.541255 15.107209 24.796180 52.771055 251.863929 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.554553 10.222410 14.704654 24.302017 52.569859 271.773307 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.509507 10.245846 14.925029 25.258637 57.921833 419.647608 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.314473 10.010435 14.651078 25.020469 58.718821 501.058639 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 7.166388 9.847488 14.502942 25.069516 60.735021 675.614069 NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 7.044832 9.723918 14.421246 25.272605 63.546148 1051.800191 NaN